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| LIBOR - OIS (November 11, 2008) LIBOR is down to 2.18% a 4-year low. It reached a high of 4.81% on 10/10/08 when equities found new 52 week lows. It was about 2.81% the day Lehman filed for bankruptcy on 9/15/08. LIBOR-OIS spread may be a worry. It has fallen to 168 basis points, which compares to 87 basis points on the last trading day before Lehman declared bankruptcy, but has averaged 11 basis points in the five years before the recent financial crisis. In the last five years before January we had just completed a 4 1/2 year bull market (03-07). Alan Greenspan stated recently that the LIBOR-OIS spread should serve as a measure for determining when markets have returned to normal. 168 basis points does not seem normal to me. |
| FED FUNDS FUTURES (November 8, 2008) Based upon the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2008 expiration is yielding an implied rate of .47% and currently pricing in a 100% chance that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by 50 basis points to .50% on 12/16/2008. The gap change between Long Term Treasury yields and the Fed Fund Rate can indicate growth direction. The gap increasing between the two rates may indicate slower growth may be near. |
| FED FUNDS FUTURES (October 31, 2008) Based upon the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2008 expiration is yielding an implied rate of .64% and currently pricing in a 100% chance that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by 25 basis points to .75%, and a 44% chance of a 50 bps cut to .50% on 12/19/2008. The gap change between Long Term Treasury yields and the Fed Fund Rate can indicate growth direction. The gap increasing between the two rates may indicate slower growth may be near. |
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