A player will select three different stocks from the 65 Dow Jones average stocks listed by selecting the number besides the name of the stock. One stock must be chosen from each of the three individual components: industrials, transports, and utilities.

The game follows the exact and precise movements of the 65 Dow Jones average stocks every market day, Monday through Friday. The object of the game is for the three stocks picked by a single player to combine for a higher positive net change than those chosen by other players. The game will begin during any typical stock market week, with stocks picked before the market opens on Monday at 9:30 am (EST) and ending at 4:00 pm (EST) when the stock market closes.

Examples of Positive/Negative Net Changes:
Player One:
2. American Express + .75
46. Southwest Airlines - .25
55. Dominion Resources + .58
Net Change: + 1.08
 
Player Two:
4. Boeing + .45
42. Norfolk Southern Corp. - .88
62. Public Service Enterprise Group - .32
Net Change: - .75

In our example above, American Express closed up +.75, Southwest Airlines closed down -.25 and Dominion Resources closed up +.58, giving player one a total net change of +1.08. Boeing closed up +.45, Norfolk Southern Corp. closed down -.88 and Public Service Enterprise Group closed down -.32, giving player two a total net change of -.75.

You must have a positive net change to have a chance to win. A negative net change will automatically lose, unless all players have negative net changes.

A tie would originate if two or more players choose stocks that have the same net change. The player that holds the stock that has the highest positive change among the stocks involved in the tie will win. In our example below, player one would be the winner because the #33 Burlington Northern Santa Fe. Corp. stock pick had the highest positive change of the six stocks involved in the tie.

Examples of Breaking a Tie:
Player One:
16. IBM + 1.85
33. Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. + 1.96
65. Williams Co. + 1.02
Net Change: + 4.83
 
Player Two:
30. Walt Disney + 1.78
45. Ryder Systems, Inc. + 1.75
63. Southern Co. + 1.30
Net Change: + 4.83

The rules for ties would work the same when all players have a negative net change. The player that holds the stock that has the lowest negative change of the stocks involved in the tie will win. If, however, the players involved in the tie selected the same stocks, the game would end up in a draw.

Points
Week Result: Multiplication Factor:
over $8.01 1000
$6.01 to $8.00 800
$4.01 to $6.00 600
$2.01 to $4.00 400
$0.01 to $2.00 200
-$0.01 to -$2.00 200
-$2.01 to -$4.00 400
-$4.01 to -$6.00 600
-$6.01 to -$8.00 800
under -$8.00 1000

The points will be calculated based upon your Week Result using the numbers in the table above. For example, if your Week Result is +$0.58, the multiplication factor is 200, meaning that you earn 116 points (.58 * 200) for the week. If your Week Result is -$2.13, the multiplication factor is 400, meaning that you earn -852 points (-2.13 * 400) for the week. Totals will be kept for year-to-date points earned and the leaderboard will display the top 5 all-time weekly points earned.

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Federal Funds Pit
Federal Funds Pit
History of Federal Funds Rate changes
LIBOR - OIS (November 11, 2008)
LIBOR is down to 2.18% a 4-year low. It reached a high of 4.81% on 10/10/08 when equities found new 52 week lows. It was about 2.81% the day Lehman filed for bankruptcy on 9/15/08. LIBOR-OIS spread may be a worry. It has fallen to 168 basis points, which compares to 87 basis points on the last trading day before Lehman declared bankruptcy, but has averaged 11 basis points in the five years before the recent financial crisis. In the last five years before January we had just completed a 4 1/2 year bull market (03-07). Alan Greenspan stated recently that the LIBOR-OIS spread should serve as a measure for determining when markets have returned to normal. 168 basis points does not seem normal to me.
FED FUNDS FUTURES (November 8, 2008)
Based upon the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2008 expiration is yielding an implied rate of .47% and currently pricing in a 100% chance that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by 50 basis points to .50% on 12/16/2008. The gap change between Long Term Treasury yields and the Fed Fund Rate can indicate growth direction. The gap increasing between the two rates may indicate slower growth may be near.
FED FUNDS FUTURES (October 31, 2008)
Based upon the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the December 2008 expiration is yielding an implied rate of .64% and currently pricing in a 100% chance that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by 25 basis points to .75%, and a 44% chance of a 50 bps cut to .50% on 12/19/2008. The gap change between Long Term Treasury yields and the Fed Fund Rate can indicate growth direction. The gap increasing between the two rates may indicate slower growth may be near.
 

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